The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) has issued a grave warning in its recent analysis, highlighting the increasing menace of terrorist activities emanating from Afghanistan and Pakistan as significant threats to both U.S. national security and global peace. The institute pointed to a recent attack by ISIS-K in Moscow as a stark indication of the evolving nature of these threats.

In the wake of the U.S. military’s departure from Afghanistan, the USIP assembled a panel of experts to evaluate the array of counterterrorism strategies available to the United States. The panel’s concluding document articulated concerns that a terrorist event originating from Afghanistan or Pakistan possesses the potential to trigger a crisis of regional or even global scale, jeopardizing U.S. alliances and diverting attention from pivotal areas of strategic competition.

Moreover, in an analysis that revisited President Joe Biden’s announcement in April 2021 concerning the U.S. withdrawal, the USIP underscored the enduring criticality of counterterrorism activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan for American interests.

The expert group posited that counterterrorism initiatives should not be sidelined as mere distractions but rather should be seamlessly woven into the fabric of broader strategic objectives. This integration is vital for diminishing threats and bolstering the United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy. The report emphasized the dire consequences of potential terrorist attacks, including significant casualties and the redirection of American resources away from other key national security concerns.

Additionally, the report shed light on the expanded capabilities of ISIS-K post-U.S. withdrawal and identified the resurgence of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as a looming regional security threat. It also detailed the Taliban’s ongoing support for al-Qaeda, highlighting the complex counterterrorism challenges posed by the Taliban’s sheltering of terror factions and their propagation of extremist doctrines.

Despite the absence of the worst-case scenario concerning al-Qaeda’s resurgence in Afghanistan, the report cautioned that the organization and its South Asia affiliate remain intricately connected with the Taliban, continuing to endorse assaults against U.S. citizens and interests.

The escalation of terrorist threats from Afghanistan has raised alarm bells not only among neighboring nations but also within the broader international community, following the Taliban’s ascent to power.